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February 13, 2017

New Study Outlines Long Island’s Long-Term Care Trends and the Future Impact of Its Aging Population

As Elderly Population Doubles, Care Delivery Models Must Adapt

An issue brief released by Adelphi University Health Policy Fellow Asha Cesar, MPH, focuses on trends and challenges in long-term care service delivery in Nassau and Suffolk counties. The brief, which was commissioned as part of the Adelphi University Center for Health Innovation’s Healthy Aging Initiative examines emerging trends across the long-term care spectrum, including nursing homes, home health and community-based care programs.

The brief cites figures from the New York State Office for the Aging that predict the population of those 60 years and over will have doubled on Long Island from 2010 to 2030, and it stresses that most people will need some form of long-term care in their lifetime, including help with daily activities like bathing and dressing. “As the aging population in our community grows, we need to assess the impact it will have on what kind of care and services people are going to need in the next 10 to 20 years,” said Elizabeth Cohn, Ph.D., RN, executive director of the Center for Health Innovation at Adelphi University.

Brief author Cesar, who manages the day-to-day activities of the Northwell Health Accountable Care Organization (ACO), the largest Medicare Shared Savings Program ACO in downstate New York, shows how new delivery models are changing the scope of long-term care and suggests that, as increased resources become dedicated to home health and community-based programs, there is a need for major federal, state, and private insurer investments to expand long-term care program offerings.

Significant trends identified include:

  • Major federal, state and private insurer investments are necessary to expand access to long-term care program offerings.
  • Avoidable hospital inpatient and emergency department readmissions present an opportunity for operational synergy, continuity of care and cost savings.
  • New delivery models are changing the scope of traditional long-term care.
  • Increased resources are being dedicated to home health and community-based care programs.

Cesar concludes that long-term care on Long Island will continue to undergo reforms and policymakers will need to address the patchwork of public and private financing options that lack a uniform public policy or care framework. She also notes the health care delivery system must be flexible enough to address the acute, chronic, and non-medical social needs—such as housekeeping and transportation—of the long-term care patient, which may fluctuate over time.  

Asha Cesar’s “A Snapshot of Long-Term Care Service Delivery Trends on Long Island and the Impact on the Aging Population” can be read in its entirety online. To learn more about the Adelphi University Center for Health Innovation, visit

About Adelphi University Center for Health Innovation

Adelphi University’s Center for Health Innovation (CHI) is the primary resource in our region for innovative, multidisciplinary, evidence-based responses to improving health, healthcare systems and public health. CHI creates and fosters community-focused, interdisciplinary academic programming, applied research, community partnerships and leadership—all with the goal of meeting current and emergent health needs of Long Island and our region.


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